A Bayesian approach for evaluating the impact of historical events on rates of diversification

TitleA Bayesian approach for evaluating the impact of historical events on rates of diversification
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2009
AuthorsMoore BR, Donoghue MJ
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume106
Pagination4307 - 4312
ISSN00278424
KeywordsAdoxaceae, extinction, key innovations, Lupinus, MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES, speciation
Abstract

Evolutionary biologists often wish to explore the impact of a particular historical event ( e. g., the origin of a novel morphological trait, an episode of biogeographic dispersal, or the onset of an ecological association) on rates of diversification (speciation minus extinction). We describe a Bayesian approach for evaluating the correlation between such events and differential rates of diversification that relies on cross-validation predictive densities. This approach exploits estimates of the marginal posterior probability for the rate of diversification ( in the unaffected part of the tree) and the marginal probability for the timing of the event to generate a predictive distribution of species diversity that would be expected had the event not occurred. The realized species diversity can then be compared to this predictive diversity distribution to assess whether rates of diversification associated with the event are significantly higher or lower than expected. Although simple,

URLhttp://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=edswsc&AN=000264278800047&site=eds-live